APEC Sees 3.2% Growth in 2026 as Exports Jump, Inflation Accelerates
The APEC region is forecast to grow 3.2 percent in 2026, supported by strong technology-related trade and investment, even as higher energy costs, geopolitical tensions and trade policy uncertainty weigh on the outlook.
Growth is expected to moderate from 3.3 percent in 2025 to 3.2 percent this year and 3.0 percent in 2027, according to the latest APEC Regional Trends Analysis. While growth prospects have been revised up for five APEC economies and down for six, the overall regional forecast for 2026 remains unchanged, with projections for 10 economies maintained.
“APEC continues to grow despite a much more difficult external environment, with technology investment, trade and digital services providing important support to the regional economy,” said Carlos Kuriyama, director of the APEC Policy Support Unit.
“But the sources of growth are becoming more concentrated while risks are coming from several directions at once. Higher energy costs, geopolitical and trade policy uncertainty, aggravated by weather-related disruptions could all dampen consumption and investment. Economies need to strengthen other sources of growth while making the most of the current technology-driven momentum.”
Merchandise exports and imports rose 18.8 percent and 10.2 percent by value in the first quarter from a year earlier, respectively, compared with growth of 5.1 percent and 7.9 percent in the same period of 2025. Export and import volumes increased 10.8 percent and 11.1 percent, respectively, as demand for technology products drove trade across the region.
Inflation across APEC is forecast to accelerate to 2.9 percent in 2026 from 2.4 percent last year before easing to 2.5 percent in 2027, as higher food and transportation costs put renewed pressure on prices. Increased fuel and insurance costs, together with tight shipping capacity, have also pushed up freight rates on several intra-Asia and long-haul routes.
“Central banks are facing renewed price pressures at a time when economic growth is expected to moderate,” said Rhea Crisologo Hernando, analyst with the APEC Policy Support Unit.
“The challenge is to keep inflation expectations anchored without unnecessarily constraining economic activity, particularly when price pressures are coming from external supply shocks. The persistence and scale of these pressures will be important in determining the appropriate monetary policy response,” she added.
Supply chain pressures have eased from an April spike, while trade policy uncertainty has fallen substantially from its 2025 average. The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index dropped by 56.5 percent between April and July 2026, while the Trade Policy Uncertainty Index fell to 183.8 points from an average of 543.0 last year.
Investment is increasingly flowing into technology and energy. Information and communications, electronics and energy accounted for 57.6 percent of global greenfield investment in 2025, nearly 10 percentage points more than five years earlier, while foreign direct investment in APEC remained broadly stable.
The analysis also points to weather as a growing economic risk. An intensifying El Niño could bring drought, heat stress and flooding across parts of the region, potentially reducing agricultural output and adding to food price pressures. Supplies of key agricultural products remain broadly adequate, although balances are tightening for milled rice, oilseeds and vegetable oils.
“The economic risks we are tracking are increasingly interconnected,” said Eldo Simanjuntak, researcher with the APEC Policy Support Unit.
“A weather shock can affect agricultural production and food prices, while energy and shipping costs can feed through to businesses and consumers. Strengthening supply chains, food security and productive investment will be critical to keeping these shocks from becoming a broader drag on growth.”
The report calls for investment in digital infrastructure and connectivity, stronger supply chains, more resilient agriculture and early warning systems, and improvements to the investment environment to support longer-term growth.
Read the APEC Regional Trends Analysis – August 2026.
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